Sinochem News Recently, the Situation and Outlook at the End of 2022 released by the American Chemical Council (ACC) pointed out that the chemical industry in the United States will perform stably in 2022, but the outlook for 2023 will be very different, and the overall output of chemicals in the United States will decline by 1.2% next year.
ACC said that the output of basic chemicals in the United States will increase by 2.1% in 2022. Among them, synthetic rubber increased by 6.2%, inorganic chemicals by 4.4%, and man-made fibers by 4.3%. Driven by strong demand in the terminal market and replenishment of inventory, the output of special chemicals increased by 9.6%, and that of coatings increased by 12.0%.
According to the report, the growth rate of chemical production in 2022 is more than twice that in 2021. In the first half of the year, replenishment of inventory was the main reason for the increase in output. Previously, the inventory was exhausted due to weather related production problems. ACC said: "In addition to the positive factors such as replenishing inventory and new shale superior capacity, the continuous expansion of manufacturing production and the competitive advantage of energy and raw material costs have also created demand for basic chemicals, synthetic materials and special chemicals. The output of agricultural chemicals continues to rebound, partly because the production of natural gas raw materials for fertilizer and consumer goods also continues to grow."
In 2022, the chemical trade of the United States also increased sharply, with the export increasing by 20.4%, reaching 184 billion dollars; Imports increased by 23.9% to US $157 billion. However, the output growth in the third quarter began to slow down. ACC said that the manufacturer's inventory rose relative to the shipment volume and remained at a relatively high level at the beginning of the fourth quarter. However, in the last few weeks at the end of 2022, major challenges have emerged in the global economy, making chemical producers face difficulties. High inflation led the central bank to take radical actions, slowing down economic growth in the United States and abroad. The continuation of the Russian Ukrainian conflict may marginalize the economies of Eastern Europe. Spillover effects, including high energy prices, are harming the economies of Western Europe and many emerging economies that rely on imported energy and food. ACC forecasts that the global GDP growth rate may drop to 0.2% in 2023, a sharp drop from 2.9% in 2022.
ACC said: "It is expected that the U.S. economy will experience a slight recession in early 2023, because the aggressive monetary tightening policy of the Federal Reserve will hinder economic growth. However, a relatively healthy balance sheet will support the recovery of the U.S. in the second half of the year. Due to the continued energy crisis in Europe, the competitiveness of the U.S. chemical manufacturing industry will be further enhanced."
